&61.c/ The Long Tail Revisited

Imagine my authority in the blogosphere would grow, then I would simply move to the left in the curve, my revenue above me. And the other way round. Positions of all bloggers relative to all others changing constantly to keep them sorted by revenue.

Now we have two variables here which could change for whatever reason, the number of bloggers and the total sum of ad money spent.

1. Ad money spent is the area below the curve.

- In case the sum remains constant, my gain might be Michael's loss. And the other way around.

- If ad money increases, all or a few could win. Ad money decreasing, all or a few loose.

2. The total number of bloggers is how far the curve extends to the right. There is a shear infinite potential of zero-revenue bloggers to the left who do it for fame or fun and who do not contribute to the area below the curve.

- If people join and want to make money, someone will loose unless total money spent increases at the same time.

- In case people leave and the money spent remains constant, someone will gain market share.

Now here come those making money ON the collective long tail, the widget-makers, the access providers, the telcos, etc. They are not depicted in the same curve! And as we have revenue on the ordinate and not profit, the tail does not cross the abscissa as a consequence. We cannot deduct the widget makers revenue from any area below or above that curve. What is clear though is that those widget makers depending on the bloggers leaving the game will loose their business model.

But as at the same time the number of zero-revenue bloggers might as well exceed those leaving, predictions of what will happen are unclear. Everyone has some expenses adding up in another long tail curve depicting widget revenue versus number of widget makers.

"It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future"

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